Project 6 - Decadal changes of flood probabilities

Günter Blöschl, Andrea Kiss and David Lun
Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, Vienna University of Technology

Recently there have been a number of major floods in Europe and it seems as if they had increased in number and magnitude [Hall et al., 2014]. In many catchments the recent floods are much larger than the second largest event on record (Fig. 1). A very important question hence is whether the probabilities of the occurrence of such extreme floods have increased in recent years and what the drivers could be.

In SP6 this issue is addressed by analysing flood changes in Germany and Austria in a consistent way. The research in SP6 is focusing on: (1) the detection of flood changes from long data series of German and Austrian floods, (2) the extension of the analyses back in time by historical information and (3) a new approach for attributing flood changes to their drivers by including regional information. .


Bertola, M., Viglione, A., and Blöschl, G.: Informed attribution of flood changes to decadal variation of atmospheric, catchment and river drivers in Upper Austria. Journal of Hydrology, 577, 123919. DOI:, 2019.
Bertola, M., Viglione, A., Lun, D., Hall, J., and Blöschl, G.: Flood trends in Europe: are changes in small and big floods different?. Hydrology & Earth System Sciences, 24(4). DOI:, 2020
Lun, D., Fischer, S., Viglione, A., and Blöschl, G.: Detecting Flood‐Rich and Flood‐Poor Periods in Annual Peak Discharges Across Europe. Water Resources Research,